Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros – 10/22/2019 Free Pick & MLB Betting Prediction

Washington Nationals

Has Max Scherzer ever been a +175 underdog before? He is in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday.

Houston only needed Gerrit Cole once against the Yankees so he will start Game 1 on six days of rest. He’s only given up one run in three starts this postseason (22.2 innings) but struck out seven compared to five walks in that lone LCS start.

Scherzer snapped his streak of six consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings pitched in 2019; his WHIP was over 1.00 for the first time in five years; but his walk and strikeouts numbers were as good as ever though.

His only career World Series game, like his teammate Anibal Sanchez, came as a member of the Detroit Tigers in 2012, when the Giants swept the series. He started Game 4 and went into the seventh but gave up a homer to Buster Posey.

Home runs will be key in this one. Homers have accounted for all four of the runs Mad Max has given up in this year’s postseason.

Houston Astros

Meanwhile, Houston scored 15 of its 22 runs in the LCS with the homer. George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa each hit multiple shots. Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick hit one each.

Michael Brantley went 7-for-23 with four walks in the LCS but all seven hits were singles. His only extra-base hit all postseason was his homer in the series-clincher against Tampa Bay.

Yordan Alvarez isn’t hitting for power either but while Brantley has been a tough out, the rookie has not. He finished the LCS 1-for-22 with two walks and a dozen strikeouts.

It’s a little scary that Houston still managed to beat the Yankees in six and to then to consider what might happen if Alvarez gets hot in this series.

I just don’t expect it to happen. He’s got no chance against Patrick Corbin and he’s been late on the type of heat he’ll see from Strasburg and Scherzer.

He could, however, run into something from Anibal Sanchez or the Nationals’ bullpen. If Dave Martinez isn’t careful with pitching matchups once he gets into his bullpen, Houston will make it quick.

MLB Baseball Betting Trends:

WAS are 6-2 in their last 8 games as an underdog.
WAS are 40-16 in their last 56 overall.
WAS are 40-16 in their last 56 games on grass.
HOU are 40-12 in their last 52 home games.
HOU are 53-19 in their last 72 games on grass.
HOU are 23-9 in their last 32 playoff home games.
WAS are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Houston.

Free Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros MLB Prediction: Houston wins Game 1.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think it’ll be a quick series. It has potential to be one if the Nationals don’t show up but it’s starting to feel like their year.

It won’t start easy against Cole, who should be feeling fresh after the extended rest. Scherzer will feel the youth that has alluded him over the years in this one.

4* Free 2019 World Series Betting Pick: over an adjusted total.

The Astros are just too big at -200. I don’t particularly like the Nats either. The total is low and while I’m not confident it goes over, I do believe there’s a distinct chance both starters struggle. If that happens, this thing could fly into double-digits. I’m looking for an adjusted line with as big a payout as I can get.

MLB Free Score Prediction: Washington 1 – Houston 4

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